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基于相似日和CNN-LSTM的短期負荷預測

來源：電工電氣發布時間：2022-08-29 14:29 瀏覽次數：288

基于相似日和CNN-LSTM的短期負荷預測

童占北¹，鐘建偉¹，李禎維²，吳建軍²，李家俊²

(1 湖北民族大學智能科學與工程學院，湖北恩施 445000；

2 國網湖北省電力有限公司恩施供電公司，湖北恩施 445000)

摘要：為充分發掘歷史信息，解決氣象數據不足影響預測精度的問題，采用灰色關聯分析 (GRA) 選取天氣相似日和 CNN-LSTM 混合神經網絡的方法來預測電力負荷。利用 GRA 計算每日各氣象因素與日總負荷的灰色關聯度，再計算各日與典型日的相同氣象因素之間的歐氏距離，將各氣象因素的歐氏距離分別乘以對應因素的關聯度，并將同一天的結果累加，得到一個綜合得分。選取待預測日之前分數最低的 5 天作為相似日，將相似日各時刻的負荷數據輸入 CNN-LSTM 網絡中，預測出待預測日的負荷，通過與其他模型對比，驗證了該方法的有效性。

關鍵詞： 灰色關聯分析；相似日；CNN-LSTM 混合神經網絡；短期負荷預測

中圖分類號：TM715 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1007-3175(2022)08-0017-06

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Grey Relational

Analysis and CNN-LSTM

TONG Zhan-bei¹, ZHONG Jian-wei¹, LI Zhen-wei², WU Jian-jun², LI Jia-jun²

（1 College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China;

2 Enshi Power Supply Company, State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd, Enshi 445000, China）

Abstract: This paper used grey relational analysis(GRA) to select days with similar weather conditions and explore more historical information.In addition, it employed the CNN-LSTM hybrid neural network method to predict power load and solve the problem of insufficient meteorological data affecting prediction accuracy. This research used GRA to calculate the grey relational grade between daily meteorological factors and overall load. In addition, it computed the Euclidean distance of the same meteorological factors between each day and the typical day. The Euclidean distance of each meteorological factor was multiplied by the relevancy of corresponding factors. The accumulation of the calculation results in the same day could obtain an overall score. This study took five days with the lowest score before predicted days as the similar days. It inputted load data into the CNN-LSTM network to forecast the load of prediction days. Compared with other models, the effectiveness of this method is verified.

Key words: grey relational analysis; similar day; CNN-LSTM hybrid neural network; short-term load forecasting

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基于相似日和CNN-LSTM的短期負荷預測