變壓器壽命評估中的特征量分析
包瑩1，賀細雄2，章敏1，杜富豪2
（1 國網武漢供電公司，湖北 武漢 430000；2 國網電力科學研究院武漢南瑞有限責任公司，湖北 武漢 430074）
摘 要：基于現場數據，借助回歸分析和假設檢驗的方法，分析了電氣數據、油色譜數據和油化實驗數據特征量與變壓器運行年限之間的關系。研究表明，吸收比、介質損耗、油擊穿電壓、氫烴含量等數據與變壓器運行年限之間的關系很弱，主要反映變壓器油的絕緣性能，能有效識別出變壓器受潮等整體性的故障，但受濾油和換油的影響，不能有效反映變壓器的剩余壽命；CO 和CO2 氣體含量與變壓器運行年限嚴格相關，反映變壓器固體絕緣狀態，是變壓器壽命預測的老化特征量，但是濾油或換油會造成碳氧化合物流失，準確確定變壓器的壽命終點，還需借助其它手段綜合分析。
關鍵詞：變壓器；老化；壽命預測；狀態評價；特征量
中圖分類號：TM401+.1 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1007-3175(2017)02-0018-06
Analysis of Characteristic Quantity for Transformer Life Assessment
BAO Ying1, HE Xi-xiong2, ZHANG Min1, DU Fu-hao2
（1 State Grid Wuhan Power Supply Company, Wuhan 430000, China;
2 Wuhan NARI Limited Liability Company of State Grid Electric Power Research Institute, Wuhan 430074, China）
Abstract: Based on the field data, this paper analyzed the relationship between electric data, oil chromatographic data, oil chemical experiment data and transformer operating life with the help of regression analysis and hypothesis testing. Researches show that absorption ratio, dielectric loss, oil breakdown voltage and hydrogen hydrocarbon content had weak relationship with the transformer operating life. The above parameters mainly reflected the insulation performance of transformer oil and could identify the integral faults such as damp defect etc, but they were influenced by oil filtering or oil change so as not to effectively reflect the residual life of the transformers. The contents of CO and CO2 gases, strictly associated with the transformer operation age limit, reflecting the state of transformer solid insulation, were the
characteristic quantity of transformer residual life prediction. Yet oil filtering or oil change would make carbon-oxygen compound go away. If the transformer residual life prediction needs confirming correctly, analysis should be made with the help of other means comprehensively.
Key words: transformer; aging; life prediction; state evaluation; characteristic quantity
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